4.5% vs 6.4%: In January 2026, US year-over-year pay growth was 4.5% for job-stayers vs

4.5% vs 6.4%

In January 2026, US year-over-year pay growth was 4.5% for job-stayers vs 6.4% for job-changers — the smallest switching premium since 2020.

Source: ADP Research · Pay trends to watch in 2026 (2026) [16]

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